Wishful Thinking

There are a lot of questions these days.  When is the recession going to end?  Will I have a job next month?  Why are the Republicans willing to let the very people that vote for them die because they can’t afford health insurance?  All of which are good questions, but there is one that keeps getting relegated to the back pages of the newspaper because people don’t seem to think it’s that important: what will computing be like for us in the next couple of years?

We are getting to a point, if we haven’t already reached it, where computer technology is far exceeding the needs of consumers.  Sure, industries and academic institutions always need more power, but as for you and me, not really.  For example, I just installed Windows 7 on my PC.  That computer is 6 years old, and aside from an outdated sound card everything works just fine.  On a brand new computer it would be astounding.  That brand new computer would allow you to watch HD movies on your monitor, or you could hook it up to your television, but my 6 year old machine is still capable.  Even the needs of almost any gamer are at their max, save of course if you are trying to play 3 different games on 6 monitors simultaneously.  But seriously, for your everyday consumer we’re at the limit and we aren’t really going to feel the effects of advancements in our everyday lives with our home PCs.

It is interesting to look at the differences in the approach to computers between my parents, myself, and my siblings.  My dad uses computers for work and he does browse the internet, while my mom only uses computers when absolutely necessary.  This is to be expected of folks from their generation.  For me, I can’t get enough of computers.  The capabilities of technology fascinate me and I’m constantly looking for new ways to implement technology, as long as it’s practical of course.  Now, just 3 years younger is my brother, and he, like my sister and my youngest brother, use computers purely for their needs.  They do not care what Snow Leopard can do or when the supposed Mac Tablet is coming out, all they need to know is can they do what they have to.  This is a trend I am seeing with most that are even just a few years younger than me.

Part of this phenomenon is likely due to the ubiquity of computers today.  When I graduated high school they were still fairly expensive and not very well utilized by high schools.  By the time my brother graduated from high school they were everywhere, and they had gotten a lot cheaper.  Of course there are still your 13 year old hackers that somehow have figured out how to get into the White House lawn sprinkler system, but aside from them the curiosity into how computers work and what they can do is dying down, partially because they kind of already do everything now.  Is that a problem?  Well, before I can answer that, we have to look a few years down the line.

So what is next?  The common answer to that question is smartphones, and rightfully so.  You can already do so much on a smartphone: pay your utilities, track shipments, order take out, watch movie trailers, a lot of things you used to need to be at a laptop or desktop to do, and now you can do that from literally anywhere.  Over the next couple of years you will see traditional cell phones phased out and smartphones will be the new norm.  Right now though, I want to focus more on the traditional home computer, because it is still far from dead.

The home PC is going to serve a few functions in this new world of smartphone craziness.  First, it will be there to back up your smartphone.  Whether it breaks, is hacked, or simply gets old, you are always going to want a more solid machine to back it up to.  The PC will also still be your default text editor.  I never see a college student sitting down to write a paper on a cell phone, though it is possible that if smartphones get powerful enough that we could see a resurgence of the university computer lab as students save money on a laptop they really don’t need anymore.  Home computers biggest role, however, could come in the form of the automated home.  Lighting, sprinklers, heating and power could all be regulated by your PC.  Systems like that now are quite expensive, but over time they will be commonplace.

Home automation is a sticky point because people don’t like the idea of a computer being in charge, and rightfully so.  What happens if the computer crashes, or is hacked, and you can’t turn on your heat when it’s 30 below.  If these issues can be successfully addressed though, it will be great.  Imagine a single computer that keeps everything together: from what movies get downloaded from Netflix for your shinny new high def, to having computer served voicemail through VoIP, and a touchscreen monitor in the kitchen to consolidate the whole family’s calendars from Google Calendar and Microsoft Exchange servers from work.  To top it all off you’ll be able to turn on the lights and unlock the doors as you’re turning down the street from your smartphone.

All of this is great, but the take home message is that you needn’t worry about how you will interact with computers in a few years, because you won’t even think about it anymore.  They are just going to be there, ready for what you need at all times.  The idea of them being so intertwined with your life may be scary, but trust me that there are some really smart people out there working for people that want you to buy into it, so they will find solutions.  The greatest part of this future is that you will be able to actually start forgetting about computers.  Go back to your old hobbies of making beer, or apple picking, whatever you like to do you’ll be able to spend your time on rather than surfing the web endlessly and not knowing why.  Dorks like me will still be around to ask what is next and to keep things working, albeit in the background for you not to worry about.  So, you don’t have to become computer geeks, just be comfortable using your own computers, and get used to playing with smartphones.  I promise in a few years it won’t even be an issue anymore, but we all need to have to drink the punch and have a little faith for it to work.